New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is in no hurry to leave. In a press release issued at 1.25 pm on Wednesday, 7 October 2026, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said the monsoon withdrawal line has not moved since 3 October. It also warned of heavy rain in Tamil Nadu and in Kerala from 8 to 10 October.
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What happened
Each year the monsoon reaches India in June and then slowly pulls back. IMD tracks this with a withdrawal line. Places north and west of it are done with the monsoon. On 7 October, the line still ran through Supaul, Ranchi, Raipur, Brahmapuri, Parbhani, Baramati and Harnai.
On 3 October, IMD said the monsoon had left the rest of north India, all of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra. It expected the monsoon to quit most of Marathwada and Vidarbha within two or three days. Four days on, the line has not budged. IMD now says conditions are likely to become favourable in the next two or three days for the monsoon to leave some more parts of Maharashtra and Chhattisgarh, and some parts of Telangana and North Interior Karnataka.
Rain in the south is a big reason. The Hindu BusinessLine reported on 6 October that IMD expects wet, unsettled weather there for a few more days, which could hold back the withdrawal. IMD says a trough, or long band of low pressure, runs from the Gulf of Mannar to North Interior Karnataka.
How much rain fell
In the 24 hours ending 8.30 am on 6 October, Valparai in Tamil Nadu got 12 cm and Royachoti in Rayalaseema got 9 cm, IMD said. Heavy rain went on the next day. In the 24 hours ending 8.30 am on 7 October, Coimbatore in Tamil Nadu got 12 cm, Nawadih in Jharkhand 11 cm, Ranni in Kerala 9 cm, Aurangabad in Bihar 8 cm and Palampur in Himachal Pradesh 8 cm, IMD said.
Who is affected
People in Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Mahe face the most rain over the next four days, along with farmers who have paddy, banana or groundnut in the field. Up north, Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh may see thunderstorms, mainly on 7 and 8 October. Heavy rain is also likely in parts of the north and east, from Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand to Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal.
Key details and numbers
Heavy rain warnings (IMD press release, 7 October)
- Himachal Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Sub Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim: 7 October.
- Gangetic West Bengal: 7 and 8 October.
- Uttarakhand: 8 and 9 October.
- Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal: 8, 9 and 10 October.
- Kerala and Mahe: 8, 9 and 10 October.
- 11 to 13 October: no heavy rain warning anywhere so far.
IMD counts 64.5 mm to 115.5 mm of rain in a day as heavy.
Thunderstorms and wind
Thunderstorms with lightning are likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal from 7 to 13 October. Storms with gusts of up to 60 kmph may hit Kerala, Mahe and Lakshadweep on 9 and 10 October. In the north, similar gusts are possible over Punjab on 7 and 8 October and over Uttar Pradesh on 7 October. Delhi and Haryana may see thunderstorms and lightning on 7 and 8 October.
Delhi forecast
IMD’s 7 October press release expects highs of 34 to 36 degrees Celsius in Delhi on 7 October and 33 to 35 degrees on 8 October, with partly cloudy skies. On 9 October, highs may dip to 31 to 33 degrees, a little below normal, with a chance of very light rain and thunder at a few places.
What happens next
In its two week outlook of 1 October, IMD said the monsoon could leave most of east and northeast India between 8 and 14 October.
That outlook also flagged the Bay of Bengal. IMD expects a swirl of winds over the north Andaman Sea around 12 October, and a low pressure area there around 13 October. It saw a low chance of a depression, a stronger system, forming over the Bay around 15 October. On 7 October, BusinessLine reported that the latest daily model guidance is more restrained and favours a low pressure area at best. A depression is not a cyclone, and IMD has not forecast a cyclone.
The date matters for Tamil Nadu. BusinessLine noted that 15 October is the normal start of the northeast monsoon, which brings the state its main rains. IMD chief M. Mohapatra said on 1 October it may set in around 15 to 21 October this year, The New Indian Express reported.
Background
This year’s southwest monsoon was weak. IMD said June to September rain was 759.4 mm, or 87 per cent of its long term normal, the fourth lowest since 2001. The south peninsula got just 76 per cent of its usual rain. IMD expects October rain for India as a whole to be below 85 per cent of normal, but normal rain over the south from October to December.
What it means for you
In Tamil Nadu or Kerala, check the IMD district warnings each morning before you travel. IMD says heavy rain can cause waterlogging, minor damage to kutcha houses, small landslides in the hills and delays on roads and railways. During lightning, stay away from trees and water, and unplug appliances.
IMD asks farmers in Tamil Nadu and Kerala to drain extra water from fields, prop up banana plants, hold off on fertiliser and pesticide sprays while it rains, and harvest ripe crops in dry spells. Keep animals in sheds and fodder somewhere dry. There is no warning for fishermen for the next seven days.
Our guides on smart farming methods and the new MSP for rabi crops may help with planning. Standing water can breed mosquitoes, so read our explainer on dengue symptoms and prevention. For the bigger picture, see the role of climate in India.
FAQ
Has the monsoon left India?
Not yet. It has left most of the north and west, but the withdrawal line has not moved since 3 October.
Will Delhi get rain?
IMD expects rain at a few places in the Delhi region until 13 October, with a chance of thunderstorms on 7 and 8 October.
Is a cyclone coming?
IMD has not forecast one. Its 1 October outlook gave a low chance of a depression in the Bay of Bengal around 15 October. This can change, so follow IMD’s daily updates.
Sources
- India Meteorological Department, Press Release, 7 October 2026 (issued 13:25 IST)
- India Meteorological Department, All India Weather Summary and Forecast Bulletin (morning), 7 October 2026
- India Meteorological Department, Press Release, 6 October 2026
- India Meteorological Department, All India Weather Summary and Forecast Bulletin (midday), 3 October 2026
- India Meteorological Department, Current Weather Status and Extended Range Forecast (1 to 14 October 2026), 1 October 2026
- India Meteorological Department, Seasonal Outlook for the Post Monsoon Season 2026 and October 2026, 30 September 2026
- India Meteorological Department, Salient Features of the 2026 Southwest Monsoon Season, 30 September 2026
- India Meteorological Department, Standard Operation Procedure: Weather Forecasting and Warning Services, 2021
- The Hindu BusinessLine, South Peninsula rain holds up monsoon withdrawal, 6 October 2026
- The Hindu BusinessLine, Myanmar monsoon withdrawal signals northeast monsoon transition over south India, 7 October 2026
- The New Indian Express, El Nino impact unlikely, TN to see normal NE monsoon, 2 October 2026